Cost Per Mile: $7M - $15M
ULTra Cost Guidance
General
The costs for an ULTra systems deployment need to be derived from a detailed design study for the particular application. There is never a single "one size fits all" cost. Generic $ per mile figures are useable for basic planning purposes but should be used for guidance only.
Costs for a specific application will vary significantly depending on the individual system complexity, and are particularly influenced by the ridership demand the system faces. Guideway and control systems will remain fairly constant, but station capacity (berths and locations) and number of vehicles (with attendant maintenance and maintenance facility costs) will all flex significantly dependent on the volume of passenger movements required. ULTra systems need to be designed to meet peak capacity loading however unlike most other systems the system tailors itself to the demand at the time and therefore does not consume energy in unnecessary journeys.
Structural/loading requirements of the elevated infrastructure are significantly lower than alternative technologies owing to the lightweight nature of the vehicles and the simple, unpowered guideway. The building blocks of each system are designed to be less capital intensive than conventional rail transit systems and this has been verified through reference to the Heathrow actual cost figures.
Primary capital cost drivers
The primary cost drivers can be identified as:
- System size (Particularly if custom elements are required)
- Station Density - stations required per guideway mile,
- Desired average passenger wait time,
- Peak system loading
- Amount of single versus bi-directional guideway,
- Amount of elevated/at-grade/tunnel/culvert/cantilever guideway
- Open environment deployment (urban and public areas or semi open/closed, controlled access such as airports and private campus areas)
- Integration with other site facilities/roads/pedestrian areas etc.
- Security requirements
- Customer's aspirations for station design.
- Customer requirements for custom vehicle appearances and characteristics
Secondary cost drivers
Other less specific cost drivers include:
- Normal civil engineering factors including:
- raw material commodity costs (concrete and steel),
- soil conditions
- seismic conditions
- presence of utilities
- geographic location of system installation
- inflation and the state of construction labour markets.
- site access and integration with other site activities (As most of the system is prefabricated off site, construction costs for an ULTra system are less prone to site based factors).
- time available for deployment
- Local safety legislation
Optimum cost systems
An optimum capital cost system would typically have
- 10 or more miles of guideway
- A high percentage of at-grade guideway
- Fewer [2 - 2.5] stations per mile of guideway
- Lower passenger demand
- Simple stations
- Favourable soil conditions
- Lower regional construction costs
- High use of standardized components
Higher Cost systems
A relatively higher capital cost system would typically have
- 3 or fewer miles of one-way guideway
- A high percentage of elevated, tunnel, or culvert guideway
- More stations per mile of guideway
- Higher passenger demand
- Fancy stations
- Unfavourable soil conditions
- Higher regional construction costs
- High requirement for system customizations
Whereas the above costs can be used for guidance on system capital costs, the overall business case is likely to work best where the assets are highly and consistently utilized. The business case is more important than capital costs. As with many infrastructure projects, the optimization of the business case often works in opposition to pure capital cost minimization.
New build versus Retrofit
Treatment of capital costs are also dependent on the environment of application i.e. whether the system is designed in to new build, where guideways and stations can often be wholly or partially built into building and estate design at little additional cost, or whether the system is retrofit into existing developments, where virtually all cost is new.
Price Guidance
ATS now have extensive cost data from the London Heathrow project that can be translated into new project costs by removal of the development elements associated with the initial build.
"Cost translation" to local pricing levels then also needs to be factored in as 75% or more by value of each ULTra system will be built locally.
In the context of the above, guidance for typical projected capital costs for a complete new system, with planned first commercial operation in 2012, in the US, range from $7M to $15M (US Dollars) per guideway mile. This price is based on a composite cost derived from a typical anticipated application and includes vehicles, guideway, stations, and control system.
These guide prices are present day prices and do not include cost reduction based on value engineering and economies of scale which are likely to have significant effects for reasonable sized systems.
Bi-directional guideway can also be estimated on the basis of one mile of bi-directional guideway is counted as 1.5 - 1.85 miles of one-way guideway. Systems with a high percentage of bi-directional guideway are therefore more cost effective when compared with purely single guideway estimates.
Bi-directional guideway
Right of way acquisition costs, if there are any, are separate. The use of private equity financing to fund capital costs will tend to raise overall project costs, as such equity demands a high return on investment.